Halloween is a holiday tradition typically involving costumes, candy, scary decorations, and themed parties. It’s no surprise that celebrations and holidays are looking very different this year due to the COVID19 pandemic, with rising cases in many states and strict social distancing measures in place. During this year’s Halloween season, in particular, it’s important to think about your own health as well as others around you, while deciding on how to celebrate Halloween 2020.
According to a recent National Retail Federation (NRF) survey, more than 148 million US adults still plan to participate in Halloween related activities this year. They also estimate consumer spending to reach $8.05 billion, only slightly down from $8.78 billion in 2019.
Historically, most consumer spending during the Halloween season is on costumes and candy. Through analyzing search trends on Google Trends over the past 30 days, we have already seen search terms such as ‘Halloween’, ‘costumes’, and ‘candy’ increasing.
To understand the market trends for products within these categories, we gathered 1,256 highly competitive broad-match-type opportunity keywords for Halloween costumes and candy, which had a monthly search volume of 25 Million (per Google’s Keyword Planner).
In addition, we used our GrowByData Price Intelligence solution which collected and analyzed Google Shopping SERP and retail price data. Here are some product information and data sets which we collected daily over the past three weeks:
- Number of Keywords – 1,256 Monthly Search Volume– 25 Million
- Number of Sellers – 6.4K Number of Brands – 1K
- Number of Price Changes – 131K Number of Unique SKUs – 51K
The following are our insights from the market analysis of Halloween costumes and candies:
1. Top Retailers Based on Number of Products
Our data showed eBay and Walmart as the top two retailers for Halloween costumes and candy over the past three weeks. It appears eBay provides the most product options for customers, with over 9K Halloween costume accessories and 1.2K candy products. Walmart is a close second, with almost 8K costume products and 550+ candy products.
2. Top 10 Retailers by price changes
Walmart appears to be the retailer with the greatest number of price changes over the past few weeks, followed closely by eBay. Per our analysis on Halloween costumes and candies in 2019, these two retailers were the top two for price changes then as well. Walmart recorded over 21K price changes on 8.5K SKUs, which on average is 2.5 price changes per SKU. eBay recorded 18.5K price changes on 10.5K SKUs, averaging 1.8 price changes per SKU. However, the retailer with the most aggressive pricing strategy was 7thAvenueCostumes with 4 price changes per SKU.
3. Top Brands Based on the Number of Products
Based on our Halloween Price Intelligence data collection over the past few weeks, Rubie’s appears to be the top brand with the greatest number of costumes and costume accessories (4.2K). In terms of candy brands, Hershey is at the top, with 163 varieties of candies.
4. Top 10 Brands by Price Changes
Rubie’s appears to be the most price competitive brand with the highest number of price changes over the past three weeks. The brand had 4.1K SKUs and almost 32K price changes, which is on average 7.7 price changes per SKU. The brand with the most aggressive pricing strategy is InCharacter, with almost 9 price changes per SKU.
5. Number of Products Based on Price Range
A majority of Halloween costumes and candy typically fall under the $0-50 price range, as shown in the graph below. Out of almost 2 million product data collected during our timeline, over 1.5 million products were priced under $50 and close to 300K were priced between $50-$100.
6. Most competitive price ranges
The graph below shows that 79% of the price changes for costumes and candies occur on products priced between $0 and $50. 15% of the total price changes are on products priced between $50 and $100. Only 6% of price changes occur on products priced over $100.
7. Top Sellers by Lowest Priced SKUs
Per our data from the past 3 weeks, the chances of getting the best deals on costumes and candy are on eBay, followed by Walmart as a close second. eBay’s products were priced lower on 20% of the SKUs during this time. Walmart had the lowest-priced SKU on 16% of the products during the same period.
8. Most Price Competitive Day of the Week
We found that Thursday is the best day to find a good deal on costumes and candies for Halloween. Prices were lowered more often on the SKUs on Thursdays (47%) over the rest of the weekdays. As a result, you are most likely to find the best deals on those two days of the week. Tuesday was the weekday that had the highest percentage (57%) of prices raised.
9. Popular Costumes by SKU
In 2020, superhero costumes seem to be a popular choice among retailers for Halloween. 6 out of the top 10 costumes are superheroes, with Robin taking the number one spot, followed by Supergirl. The batman franchise costumes look to be a popular choice.
With people and businesses continuing to practice social distancing, it is assumed that there may be fewer people visiting brick and mortar stores for their Halloween costumes and candy. Online shopping seems to be the safer and more convenient choice for consumers during this pandemic. As a result, a great opportunity is presented for online retailers. We will continue to monitor the Halloween costume and candy market to see if the trends hold or if they change in the coming weeks leading up to and after Halloween.